Re: Die Mähr von den 10 %

M.A., Thursday, 20.01.2005, 15:52 (vor 7685 Tagen) @ Bubbles

Als Antwort auf: Die Mähr von den 10 % von Bubbles am 20. Januar 2005 09:47:24:

Es handelt sich bei der angegebenen Prozentzahl von 10 % Kuckuckskindern um eine internationale Schätzung (nicht Untersuchung), die mittlerweile von Kermit G. Anderson, University of Oklahoma, überprüft und verworfen wurde:
Der Autor der Studie untersuchte, inwieweit die subjektive Sicherheit bezgl. der Vaterschaft mit der tatsächlichen Vaterschaft zusammenhängt und fand heraus, daß sich bei Vätern, die sich der Vaterschaft sicher sind, nur 2,2% täuschten.
Bei unsicheren Vätern lag der Median an Nichtvaterschaften bei nur 4,4%.
Wie der Autor auf S. 9 schreibt: "These figures are dramatically less than the "typical" nonpaternity rate of 10% or higher cited by many authors".
Nachzulesen unter:

Hi!

Deine Zahlen finde ich nicht unter der angegebenen Quelle.

Aus dem Abstract der Studie: http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/A/Kermyt.G.Anderson-1/working/abs_patconf1.html

Little is known about how accurately men’s confidence of paternity reflects actual paternity. Are men with high paternity confidence more likely to be fathers than men with low paternity confidence? Because men who unknowingly raise other men’s children face higher fitness costs than men who abandon children that are likely to be theirs, men with high paternity confidence should be more accurate at assessing actual paternity than men with low paternity confidence.

A sample of 65 worldwide nonpaternity rates is divided into three categories: high paternity confidence (N = 22, mostly from genetic studies), low paternity confidence (N = 30, containing men who contested paternity through paternity tests), and unknown paternity confidence (N = 14, mostly unpublished studies).

The results show that men with high paternity confidence have very low rates of nonpaternity (median = 1.9%), while men with low paternity confidence have much higher levels of nonpaternity (median = 30.2%). These levels are significantly different (Wilcoxon sign-rank test), confirming that men with high paternity confidence are more accurate in their assessment of paternity than men with low paternity confidence. The difference in nonpaternity between these groups remains when compared by geographical region (U.S., Europe, and elsewhere). The role of men’s mating strategies in influencing paternity confidence is discussed.

Aus der Studie selbst: http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/A/Kermyt.G.Anderson-1/working/worldwidepc_1.2.pdf

The median nonpaternity rate for the high paternity confidence sample is 1.9% (range: 0.4 - 11.8),
while median nonpaternity for the low paternity confidence sample is 30.2% (range: 14.3 - 55.6). The
median nonpaternity rates for these two groups are significantly different (Wilcoxon sign-rank test, z =
-6.112, p < 0.0001), which is not surprising since the two distributions do not even overlap. Thus, men
with high paternity confidence are less likely to be incorrect in their assessment of paternity than men
with low paternity confidence. In other words, men with high paternity confidence are more accurate in
assessing paternity.
The median nonpaternity of men whose paternity confidence is unknown is 16.7% (range: 2 - 32).
This is significantly greater than the high paternity confidence sample (Wilcoxon sign-rank test, z =
-4.349, p < 0.0001), and significantly lower than the low paternity confidence sample (Wilcoxon signrank
test, z = 3.528, p = 0.0004).
When the high and unknown paternity confidence samples are combined, the median
nonpaternity is 3.9% (range: 0.4 – 32). This is significantly less than median nonpaternity for men with
low paternity confidence (Wilcoxon sign-rank test, z = -6.053, p < 0.0001). Thus, men with low paternity
confidence are the least accurate in assessing actual paternity.

Freundliche Grüße